The Problem of Superstition in Ghana

Our country has more than its fair share of active believers. What it lacks are active thinkers and problem solvers.

A dangerous trend is beginning to take root in Ghana. It is the practice of doom prophecy, targeting the elites and the powerful. Where it came from? Same place where Internet fraud aka Sakawa and Okada originated: Nigeria.  The practice survives in very superstitious societies where people would rather believe anything than think one thing.

We’re getting ahead of ourselves; let’s take a U-turn and situate the issue in context. 

The year was 2007, and Akosombo dam, Ghana’s main source of electric power, was receding past the minimum threshold, but the government didn’t have a backup plan to the rescue. The president assured staff of Volta River Authority (VRA) that “God will not allow the dam to hang”, implicitly implying that the power problem was indeed spiritual. Not surprisingly, the message was well received by Ghanaians. Many pastors and their followers took to Akosombo, prayed and shed tears for several days. Apparently, the tears were not enough to fill the dam—perhaps the entire nation was needed to pull off the trick. Today, the power situation is worse but we didn’t pause to ask what became of those productive hours spent praying for some miracle rain. 

Then again, the Kotoka International Airport was suffering from years of mismanagement and corruption. Shutdown was imminent. The management of the airport thought the best way to use taxpayers’ money was to fly a certain man of God from abroad to pray for the company.  It was hoped that a miracle would follow. It didn’t. The problem persisted. 

To many Ghanaians anything that is inexplicable must be spiritual. Our locus of control is dangerously external. “What do you mean Akua’s headache hasn’t gone since yesterday? Have you called the doc doct…I mean the pastor?” Thinking and problem solving can’t help spiritual matters, can they? Forget the school and focus on the church. Any wonder that our places of worship are ultra modern while our schools are ultra jungle? Or that our chapels outnumber our educational units and hospitals?

The media, the local movie industry and most churches try to make us believe that problems of underdevelopment and poverty are all machinations of some devil and his earthly agents. Witches and wizards are the easy targets. However, do most Ghanaians actually know that other countries escaped poverty and other problems associated with developing countries NOT by spiritually binding their own witches and wizards, but through thinking and problem solving? Isn’t it true that it was breakthrough in science and technology—agriculture and industrial revolutions—that actually freed the European witches and wizards from their camps? 

This pattern of thought is deeply entrenched in the Ghanaian psyche and has survived because it has evaded questioning and critical analysis. We’re feeding children with this absurd dose of superstition, and without the benefit of travel, which often challenges such a worldview by confronting it with alternative ones, our nation is fast becoming a haven for miracle-seeking zombie-like people.

Now back to the main story. This year, God has chosen to reveal to Rev. Dr. Owusu Bempah, founder of Glorious Word Power Ministries International, that the sitting president is going to die. According to him, intercessional prayers are required to reverse this calamity. Many religious leaders, including Bempah’s trainer, Archbishop Duncan-Williams, have expressed divided opinion on the prophecy. Many have brushed it aside as an attention-seeking stunt, while others, including the Rev Eastwood Anaba, have braced themselves up for prayers. 

Pause briefly to examine the nature of the prophecy. It’s such that it’s impossible to be proven wrong. What can’t be proven wrong is always right. What is always right is practically useless. Why? Because it adds nothing to our body of knowledge. Thus, if by coincidence the president dies this year, just like 100s of Ghanaians would, the prophet is vindicated. If he doesn’t die, it was so because God listened to the prayers. Again, Bempah is vindicated. 

Remember the former President, Attah Mills? The reverend apparently foretold his death, and again, laid down intercessionary prayer as conditionality for his survival. Really? First, the former president was already down with cancer, which only a few survive anyway. He died. Had he survived past 2012, he’d have done so only because God heard the prayers and decided to intervene. Sensed the absurdity?

I posit that Bempah’s prophecy itself is a lifeless pronouncement unless the president and Ghanaians decide to animate it by believing in it. This is how it works. Once we collectively believe it, we succumb our will to it, endowing it with the power to shape our reality. If our faith in it becomes complete, it overgrows our reality, saps away its life, and eventually becomes indistinguishable from it. What becomes of the president ultimately then, is nothing more than the sum of our individual and collective realities, which in this case is the product of our misplaced belief. Essentially, we’d have succeeded in creating our own reality to mirror Bempah’s prophecy. It is analogous to a dream, which is but a vivid projection of our own subconscious thoughts and aspirations, although it is an entirely false reality. 

Here’s a scenario to underscore the point. The president complains of a minor headache weeks after Bempah’s pronouncement. Before the prophecy, he would’ve have brushed it off or taken an over-the-counter pain killer. The following day, he’s back to work at the Jubilee house fit and sound. With this prophecy however, things are going to be different. Family members and friends will start to panic. He’d receive numerous calls asking about his health. He becomes overly conscious of the headache and gives it extra attention than it deserves. He starts to think the headache may have something to do with the prophecy. He begins to succumb to fear, his blood pressure rises, and he becomes sleepless and agitated. Sleeplessness weakens his immune system, giving way to other diseases. He’s rushed to the hospital, but the doctor finds nothing wrong with him organically. This makes him and his family even more nervous. “Bempah must be right”, they whisper to each other.  Next, the president is rushed to spiritual healers for prayers and rituals. 

Well, if he regains his health in the process by placebo effect, the prophecy has come to pass. If he dies, the prophecy has been fulfilled. In both cases, the reverend’s power and influence would have soared, reaffirming superstitious beliefs. The next Sunday, Ghanaians flood his chapel for prayers and miracles. He makes plenty money and becomes rich and powerful overnight.  “God blesses his obedient servants with riches and wealth”, he tells his congregation. In fact, his life becomes very “tasty” like “aluguntugui.” Funny, huh?

Belief works like a parasitic organism. It has no material substance, form nor shape, but it is potent with incredible capabilities. Its power lies in its ability to sap life from the living brain, neutralize its critical thinking ability, and then subsume it. Once the process is complete, the brain becomes an empty shell that houses and protects its new host. Younger brains are particularly susceptible to this phenomenon. Ever wondered why the Taliban prefers young boys and girls for its suicide missions? 

A society like ours that feeds on what I term “unproductive beliefs” such as unfounded superstition regresses while societies that feed on productive beliefs progress. Productive belief is a refined and evolved one that has survived “thinking” in the form of questioning and doubting. Believing in the power of the human intellect, for instance, is an example of a productive belief because it leads to discoveries and inventions that improve life. Unproductive beliefs are unrefined: they are pampered and “saved” from thinking. “Just believe…you’re asking too much questions. Where is your faith”, they say. In fact, critical thinking poisons and kills unproductive beliefs in the same way that freedom kills communism. They survive in the minds of people who would rather believe anything told them than think one thing for themselves.

The human specie has evolved greatly over the millennia through an ongoing series of complex adaptions. Each successive adaption was a victory for our survival. Perhaps superstition had a survival value for our ancestors in pre-modern societies. Today, however, progress in science has rendered its value useless. Many people no longer think of drought or epidemics as punishments from some loving deity. Child prodigies aren’t witches or wizards with some “spiritual” capabilities. Rain doesn’t stop to fall into the Akosombo dam because a deity has spiritually withheld it. 

Isn’t it time we applied thinking and problem solving to our numerous challenges using the latent power of our incredible brains? Manna no longer falls from the heavens, it is cultivated right here on earth using available human and material resources.

Mr. President, I entreat you to undertake an impossible task: Neither die nor survive 2013 to vindicate Reverend Bempah. Just vanish, melt or something…just anything apart from dying or living. 

Should Ghana Sign the $3 billion Loan with China?

Investment thrives on risk, doesn’t it? The higher the risk, the higher the returns. However, the return can go in either direction --a big win or a big loss. Ghanaians like to frame it slightly differently and for a good reason – a gargantuan win or loss. It is the task of the wise investor to carefully assess their risks, both obvious and hidden, subject them to rigorous quantitative and qualitative analyses before taking a decision. This is especially critical when the investment is being made with the taxpayers' money.

The government of Ghana is about to make a very big loan deal with the Chinese government. The protracted loan has generated a lot of controversy in Ghana starting from 2011. It involves Ghana taking a $3 billion loan and paying back with 13,000 barrels of oil daily for the next 15.5 years. It’s called “trade-by-barter” and its underlying principle is simple: use what you have to get what you need. China has a healthy load of cash, much of which has to be invested outside of its economy to ensure macro-economic stability. Ghana has oil and needs capital to bring its infrastructure to a point that maximizes gains from the product. So, the two countries have decided to help each other out through trade. It's that simple. The complication, however, comes from the fairness of terms of the agreement.

Going by the current price of crude oil ($107/barrel), the government will have to pay back 7.9 billion to the Chinese government by the duration of the contract. Thus, interest on the loan alone is almost 5 billion -- about 1 billion short of double the actual loan amount. Excellent return on investment for the Chinese government! But what about Ghana?

Two renowned professors hold diametrically opposed views on the loan. The US-based Ghanaian Professor of Economics at American University and President of Free Africa Foundation, George Ayittey, who came up with the initial figures, is of the opinion that the deal is bad for Ghana. The Professor-President of Ghana, John Evans Attah Mills, however, believes the deal is good for the nation and is bent on pushing it through. Professor Mills completed his doctoral thesis in the area of taxation and economic development and is obviously not a newcomer to quantitative analysis. So why are the two professors at odds with each other on the Chinese loan? And by the way, Daily Guide reported on February 29 that government of Ghana’s lawmakers have already voted in favor of the loan agreement.

Does the deal make an investment sense to you from the figures above? Should the government go ahead and take this level of risk with taxpayers' money? Before you jump to a hasty conclusion and risk breaking a leg or two, pause and reflect for a few minutes. Well, as it turns out, the answer is not that simple when the assumptions behind the figures are laid bare. The decision even becomes slightly...well, call it "nightmarish" when the raw numbers are toasted in the microwave of econometric analysis. Did I say toast in a microwave?

First, the figures presented earlier assume that the current price of crude oil ($107/barrel) will stay constant over the 15.5 years of the contract’s life. Second, it does not control for future rate of inflation. Third, the computation fails to factor in future discount rate over the contract period. Bright Simons, the Director of Research at an Accra-based think-tank, was quick to add one more factor which almost eluded me initially: the figures assumed a zero rate of depreciation for the Ghanaian currency (Cedi) over 15.5 years. At this stage, I guess you're beginning to appreciate why the deal has "occupied" the Ghanaian airways for over a year.

The Ghana government’s financial analysts surely did price projection for crude oil over the 15.5-year period, taking into account historic prices of crude oil as well as interest and inflation rates. They might have also analyzed potential national and global events that could affect the future price of crude oil. Examples are the financial health of major trade partners in Europe, the US and Asia; global economic growth projections (because it affects demand for energy), and market analysis for alternative energy sources. Perhaps, they also controlled for the future of conflict-ridden oil producing nations such as Nigeria (thanks to Boko Haram) and Iraq.

In fact, government officials are more optimistic about the loan than most critics could imagine. The Chief Executive officer of Ghana National Gas Company (GNGC), Dr. Adjah-Sipa Yankey, is reported by Reuters as saying the $700 million gas project which the loan will finance will be able to pay off the $3 billion loan after five years. "Once we start operations, in between four-and-a-half to 5 years we will generate enough money to pay of[f] the entire loan and start making profits", Dr. Yankey said to to Reuters in 2011.

And, yes, critics of the loan, including Professor Ayittey, and many opposition party members, have done their own analyses, too. The opposition Member of Parliament (MP) for Manhyia, Dr. Mathew Opoku Prempeh, is reported as saying the nation stands to lose $2.325 billion from the loan agreement. He continued, "… [The] negotiated agreement makes mockery of the people of Ghana, and…smells of corruption..." Another opposition Member of Parliament is quoted by AllAfrica.com as saying the contract "...breached the Petroleum Revenue Management Act 815 of 2011, section 18(7) which precludes collateralization of the nation's oil for a period not more than ten (10) years.” It is important to point out that a major rival financial institution, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is also opposed to the loan deal.

On their recent posts, Professor Ayittey and Kofi Korsah further clarified the terms of the loan agreement. According to Ayittey, the infrastructure projects, which the loan is meant to develop under the Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda (GSGDA), will be built with Chinese construction workers, not Ghanaian workers. This is happening at a period when the unemployment rate is hovering around 11% (2000 est). He labeled the deal as a "chopstick mercantilism with a human face.” Kofi Korsah, a London-based Ghanaian, mentioned that per terms of the contract, the loan will be disbursed not in bulk but in tranches over a five-year period, which further goes in favor of China.

It is important to keep in mind that the Chinese government is in business to make money, obviously. The Chinese financial analysts likely did their own financial analysis and made projections before crafting the terms and conditions of the loan. Should their assumptions hold, they hope to make a good profit from the deal. A profit for China could mean a loss for Ghana and vice versa. However, for a small economy like Ghana, with no benefit of scale, unlike that of China, even a slight loss could have far-reaching consequences. It is nonetheless possible that the deal would be mutually beneficial, although China still stands a better chance, given the present terms of the agreement -- at least from a layman’s perspective.

The onus lies on the government of Ghana to double-check its facts and assumptions (both explicit and implicit) before signing the contract, as it has far-reaching ramifications for the nation's nascent economy. Another option is for the government to push for re-negotiation of aspects of the loan to make it fairer for both parties. Given the information above, should the government of Ghana commit the nation to the $3 billion loan agreement with China or not? Which of the professors’ views do you side with? Is the answer still as simple as it seemed from the beginning?

2011 State of the Economy and Freedom of Information Bill

According to EconomyWatch.com, Ghana leads the
world as the fastest growing economy in 2011 with 
GDP growth  pinned at 20%

A couple of weeks ago, a good friend of mine, Asiedu Acquah, a Ghanaian Harvard student currently undertaking research in London, posted these lines on his facebook wall, “No free access for me to the African historical collections at Oxford University because Ghana, by World Bank rankings, is a middle income country (not poor).”He then congratulated his country folks, but was quick to add a rather witty line “No freebies for your citizens anymore…”

Well, officially, Ghana has attained a middle income status, more specifically, a lower middle income. Lower middle-income countries are those with per capita Gross National Incomes of between $1,006 and $3,975 per year.

Let me begin by throwing some research findings at you:

a) According to EconomyWatch.com, Ghana leads the world as the fastest growing economy in 2011 with GDP growth pinned at 20% b) Ghana has the largest Per Capita Income (PCI) in West Africa and 21st on the continent c) Latest figures released by Ghana’s Statistical Service indicate the country’s economy stands at GH¢44 billion d) Ghana joined the league of oil producing countries in December, 2010 with 85,000 barrels of crude oil in a day (compare that with Nigeria’s 2.2 million per day) e) China is the fastest growing largest economy in the world, but Ghana tops the world as the fastest growing economy.

Now, here is a data from EconomyWatch.com. The data points reportedly come from the IMF’s tracker of GDP Growth in constant prices in the national currency (not in dollars).

“Ghana 20.146 %,  Qatar 14.337 %, Turkmenistan 12.178 %, China 9.908 %, Liberia 9.003 %, India 8.43 %, Angola 8.251 %, Iraq 7.873 %, Ethiopia 7.663 %, Mozambique 7.548 %, Timor Leste (East Timor) 7.4 %, Laos 7.395 %.”

So, what magic wand transformed or is transforming Ghana’s economic fortunes almost at a cheetah’s speed? Oh the word cheetah reminds me of George Ayittey, the Ghanaian Economist at American University and the economic revolution he seems to be sparking among many African youth lately. You have probably heard about Cheetah Generation; if not look at Patrick Awuah and his brainchild, Ashesi University—he’s the epitome of a true African cheetah! His new campus opened last month at Berekuso. I salute you, Mr. Awuah. As a Ghanaian diaspora myself, you’re a big inspiration. Oops…where did we leave off? We were talking about a certain magic wand, huh? Ok, so the wand that is transforming Ghana is quite obvious: oil.

But, wait a second. Experience has it that oil by itself does not grow an economy. Doubt it? Well if it does, Nigeria would be the new China of Africa. Over the past 50 years, Standard Bank estimates that the country has made about $6 trillion out of oil. However, is it even ironic that Nigeria still imports 60% of its own fuel because it lacks domestic refining capacity and power outage is very common? Perhaps it’s the Dutch disease or simply a Nigerian disease or a combination of both.

Let me ask again, what forces are behind Ghana’s economic gains of late? I will attempt to provide some answers.

a. Oil. Thanks to Tullow, Kosmos, GNPC, the E.O Group (by Mr. George Yaw Owusu and Dr. Kwame Bawuah-Edusei); and the Elephant and Umbrella parties! I know some hardwired party loyalists aren’t happy–if you’re one of them, “massa”, take it easy! Who said the elephant can’t use the umbrella in dire weather conditions…hurricane Irene, for example? Or the umbrella won’t add essence to its own existence by making itself useful to the elephant? You’re laughing out loud, aka LOL, aren’t you?

b. The amazing success of the telecoms sector. You’ve got to agree with me — about 75% of Ghanaians are mobile phone subscribers, research confirms. This is certainly a record-breaking percentage in Africa. Our grandmas and grandpas are fast availing themselves to the technological dictates of today. Go to Nkrumah Circle in Accra, and catch a glimpse of a dynamic African mobile phone market. Someone once joked that Nkrumah Circle be renamed, Phone Circle. I was all for it except that it would make it into Guinness Book of Records as the dumbest idea in 2011.

Thanks to the continued liberalization of the telecom sector by successive regimes. Thanks also to network service providers – MTN Ghana (aka Areeba), Vodafone, Kasapa (aka Expresso), Zain, Tigo (aka Buzz), and Airtel.

On the lighter side, to make it big in Ghana as a network service provider, don’t ever go by a local name such as Kasapa. That would be a mild insult to Ghanaians’ march to civilization aka westernization, and you’d be punished severely by customers. Instead, choose sexy English names — Expresso, Airtel etc.

c. Entrenched democracy. ‘Free and fair elections’, relatively strong institutions, freedom of speech and of the press…did I miss anything? Oh yea, even professional serial callers are tolerated — a little bit of demo-cracy and demo-crazy mixed in a charged theatrical atmosphere of democratic frenzy.

For your information, politics of insult is a ridiculously easy way to become a “national hero” overnight in Ghana. Just aim at the biggest guys in office and shoot them with mortal insults.  The Police will arrest you almost always. What next? Your entire party members would swallow their brains and stand by you in solidarity –but that’s what being a true party member entails, right? The media would spice it up as usual and before you know, you’re a national hero with a towering swagger like that of Nelson Mandela.

Democracy is sweet but abuse of democracy is bitter. As Ghanaians, we need to sorely tame our long democratic bayonets, I mean our tongues. If that’s too difficult, perhaps we should set our tongues on our teeth and give them fine cuts to size.

d. Ease of doing business. Ghana is ranked 92 by the World Bank in terms of ease of doing business. Not a great rank, but a remarkable improvement over past rankings. Ghanaian politicians are coming to terms with the reality that making it difficult for investors, both local and foreign, to establish business is not the smartest strategy to grow an economy. Don’t be surprised that it took more than five decades for the smartest amongst us to be fully convinced of the wisdom in removing bureaucratic bottlenecks in the way for entrepreneurs. Well, at least, we’re getting it “small small”; we aren’t going back. That’s for sure.

The above records are impressive; Ghanaians need to take a break and pat themselves on the back for enabling their lone Black Star to shine through the often dark African clouds to the outside world. Political emancipation of Sub-saharan Africa began right here in Ghana, and economic emancipation seems to be gathering momentum here again. It’s a good time to be a Ghanaian huh?

However, folks, there’s one more thing that Ghanaians need to pay particular attention to as greatness knocks steadily on their door. There’s the need to take the bull by the horns by passing the long-overdue Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). The FOIA basically “…establishes rules whereby citizens, foreign nationals, corporate bodies, and associations, etc., can request access to, and receive information held by government agencies.” Without the Act, taxpayers cannot challenge government agencies on how they spend their own monies.

The United Nations General Assembly, in 1946, actually recognized that freedom of information is a “…fundamental human right and the touchstone for all freedoms to which the United Nations is consecrated.” Barack Obama on his historic visit to Ghana reiterated the need for freedom of information bill.  Nigeria, under J. Goodluck, has passed FOIA into law in 2011. What is Ghana waiting for?

This call is even more urgent given the fact that Ghana has joined the ranks of oil producing nations and also that corruption alone is estimated to eat away between $195 and $429 million of the nation’s revenue cake annually. Quite a chunk of cash, isn’t it? It seems like the bad boys are making it big at the expense of the good guys. You don’t want to encourage that!

What you can do? When you make that call to Joy, Peace, Nhyira radio stations, mention the FOIA and request that government takes action in passing it into a comprehensive law. It won’t be too hard on your pocket, trust me. If you’re a journalist, add your voice to mine to call attention to FOIA, if you’re a politician, look at the long-term good of Ghana and press for FOIA. What if you’re simply a facebook addict reading this article at myjoyonline.com, Ghanaweb or Modernghana? Copy the link and paste in your facebook wall. The link is colorless; it won’t tarnish your wall. Together, we accelerate the tempo of Ghana’s march to economic freedom. Poverty sucks, you know that.

To conclude, Ghanaians once again deserve commendation for making it to the middle income category, and for leading Africa and the world in terms of GDP growth in 2011. At this point, it’s forward ever — there is no turning back on progress. The good news is that with the passage of the Freedom of Information legislation, the nation stands the prospect of consolidating its economic gains by giving Azuma Nelson’s right hand blow to corruption, and promoting a culture of transparency and accountability in the public sector.

In the end, Ghana is starved less, it grows more, and we all become better-off –including the few ‘hardworking’ corrupt nuts. You are not one of them, are you?